Demography– Manipur is a state in northeast India, bordering Myanmar to its east and south. The Imphal Valley constitutes about 10% of the geographical area of the state with 57% of the population predominantly Meitei, who are majority Hindus, with minorities of Muslims and native Sanamahism followers. The surrounding hills constitute 90% of the geographical area of the state with 43% of the population belonging to 34 tribal groups broadly categorised as Nagas and Kukis (25% and 15% roughly), who follow Christianity.
The Nagas dominate the northern districts while the Kukis are predominant in the south. The tribal people have the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, whereas the Meitei have been accorded Other Backward Class (OBC) status, with some classified as Scheduled Castes (SC) in certain areas.
Historical Perspective– Historical ethnic conflicts and tensions between Kukis (Hill tribe) and Meiteis in Manipur have contributed to the unrest, as both communities compete for political representation, resources, and cultural recognition.
Most of the Meiteis live in the Imphal valley while the tribals live in the hill districts. The Meiteis are more educated and also better represented in business and politics of the state than Kukis and Nagas.
Meitei dominate the political establishment in Manipur with 40 out of the 60 Assembly constituencies.
People from the hill areas claim that despite hill districts of Manipur comprising 89% of the geographical area, there were only 20 MLAs from these areas in the Manipur Assembly.
Meiteis are limited to only around 10% of the land in the state, as the rest of the state is classified as tribal areas.
They live in the small patch of plain area in the state, the Imphal Valley, while the Kuki(tribals) reside in the protected Hill Areas, exclusively reserved for them.
Being classified as non-tribals, Meitei people can’t buy land in over 90% of the state.
While the tribals can buy land in Imphal Valley, thereby further reducing the land availability.
The Hill Areas in Manipur comprising 90% of the total land in Manipur are declared by the government under the provisions of Article 371C of the Constitution.
The Beginning– In 2020, as the Centre began the first delimitation process in the state since 1973, the Meitei community alleged that the Census figures used in the exercise did not accurately reflect the population break-up. Meitei leaders have alleged that there has been a sudden mushrooming of villages in Churachandpur district.
The then Chief Minister N Biren Singh repeatedly echoed and fed these fears — pointing to the presence of Myanmarese in Churachandpur, and linking them to the cultivation of poppy, and repeatedly making references to “foreigners” and “outsiders” and “Drug traffickers”.
Since 2012, there has been a constant demand led by the Scheduled Tribes Demand Committee of Manipur (STDCM) for granting the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the Meitei community.
The Meitei Tribe Union had filed a petition before the Manipur High Court and had argued that the Meitei community was once recognised as a “tribe” before the merger of the princely state of Manipur with the Union of India in 1949 and that it lost its identity as a tribe after the merger.
On 20 April 2023, a judge of the Manipur High Court directed the state government to “consider the request of the Meitei community to be included in the Scheduled Tribes (ST) list”.
The Kukis feared that the ST status would allow the Meiteis purchase land in the prohibited hilly areas.
The Eruption– The tribal groups called for a total shutdown on 28 April 2023 in protest of the state government actions.
Violence erupted on May 3, 2023, after tribal communities protested a Manipur High Court order granting the Meitei community certain benefits, including land ownership in protected areas and quotas in government jobs.
Incidents of sexual violence have garnered both national and international attention, bringing to light the harrowing reality faced by women in Manipur.
Meitei mobs have repeatedly targeted women as a means of control of the rival faction, including burning homes and subjecting them to assaults, and even forcing women to strip under threats of violence or shooting them in the face, causing disfigurement.
The Meitei groups have also attacked people from their own community who have spoken out against them.
In a shocking charge, the CBI has alleged that personnel from the Manipur Police allegedly drove the two women to a mob of around 1,000 people, which stripped and paraded them before they were gang-raped, in an incident that shook the nation.
The 26-second clip showed two Kuki tribal women paraded naked by a mob of men who were groping their genitals and assaulting them.
In August 2023, India’s Supreme Court expressed concerns over what it termed the “absolute breakdown of law and order” in Manipur.
The authorities have also failed to protect members of the Meitei community. In November 2024, about 35 armed Kuki militants attacked the camp of the Central Reserve Police Force, paramilitary police, and the adjacent police station in Jiribam district, allegedly looking for “Meitei people.” They abducted and killed three women and three children including an 8-month-old infant from the Meitei community, and burned to death two older Meitei men.
As of December 2024, the 42 special investigation teams created by the Supreme Court had filed charges in only 6 percent of the 3,023 registered cases, including murders, 9 cases of sexual crimes against women, and 2,888 cases of looting, arson, and other property crimes.
Regional Implications and Challenges
In the absence of any hint of immediate peace, the prolonged conflict, nearing a civil war, is causing a significant and irreversible shift in how the people of Manipur perceive each other and New Delhi. Decades of effort to build trust between the different groups since the ethnic clashes of the 1990s, and confidence-building measures with New Delhi after the rise of insurgent groups in the 1950s, were shattered overnight on May 3, 2023.
Tragically, in the post-May 3, 2023 period the harmony between the Meiteis and Kukis has been disturbed by an ever-increasing divide owing to the persistent violence. No one feels safe in areas dominated by the rival ethnic community, resulting in large-scale migration to safer areas, including Assam and Mizoram. Schools and educational institutions remained closed, and with the internet shutdown, online classes were unavailable. Under such circumstances, youths are being compelled to take up arms. The tourism industry has also suffered, with patients from Myanmar stopping medical visits. Retail inflation at 9.7 percent in September 2023 has led to economic insecurity, and unprovoked attacks on farmers and road blockages have caused food security concerns.
Additionally, the conflict has affected mental health, with rising post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) cases since the violence began. The government’s inability to address the violence and daily insecurities has fostered a sense of alienation and distrust towards New Delhi. Insurgent groups are gaining popularity as protectors, with dormant groups reactivating and many returning from their bases in unstable Myanmar. If unchecked, these developments can accelerate the radicalization of youth, which is detrimental to India’s national security.
Geopolitically, Manipur holds strategic importance as it shares a border with Myanmar and serves as a gateway to Southeast Asia for India. Also, Manipur is crucial for India’s Act East Policy (AEP), which aims to develop cultural links, trade, tourism, and connectivity with Southeast Asia. The trilateral highway project linking India, Myanmar, and Thailand starts from Moreh in Manipur and ends at Mae Sot in Thailand. Therefore, stability of the region is crucial for India’s foreign policy. With China’s growing power and influence in the conflict-ridden Myanmar, instability in Manipur can benefit China. Additionally, the conflict has also tarnished India’s global image, with organizations and states like Human Rights Watch, the European Union, the United Nations, Genocide Watch, and the United States expressing serious concerns.
Unrest persists– Two years after ethnic violence erupted between Meitei and Kukis and the resignation of the CM Singh and President’s Rule being imposed, violent clashes are still common in the state. So far, more than 260 people have lost their lives in the clashes, around 2000 people have been injured and over 70,000 people have been displaced.
Steps needed to restore peace– It is important to identify the victims and rehabilitate them and those in rehabilitation camps, with the help of the Govt and the civil society.
The government should foster the participation of the civil society of the region in the decision-making process to instil a sense of ownership and belonging. A huge quantity of weapons and ammunition are still being held by the warring communities in the conflict-driven state of Manipur.
The entire civil society needs to be disarmed on priority.
The Mizoram Accord of 1986 between the Government of India and the Mizo National Front (MNF) serves as an example of successful engagement with all stakeholders.
The repeal of AFSPA, Armed Forces Special Powers Act 1958, is necessary to improve the human rights situation in the region.
The government should ensure that the legal system is fair and transparent to prevent the misuse of power by security forces.
The authorities should ensure that people have the right to return when conditions are in place for a safe and voluntary process carried out in accordance with the United Nations Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, with full and meaningful participation of all affected communities, including the equal participation of women.
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